Monday Night Football in Beirut

As many people know by now, the opposition to the government here has planned a general strike for Monday, Feb. 27 to coincide with the parliamentary deliberations on the Hariri assassination and the expected confidence vote. There is also a planned surge in the ongoing demonstrations at Martyrs' Square in downtown Beirut (see previous posts) on the same day, and Lebanon's security services have been busying themselves since yesterday afternoon erecting barricades, diverting traffic, closing area business (including pubs and restaurants in the downtown area), and basically making their presence felt quite effectively.

More on the local environment:

Lebanese Prime Minister ImplosionWatch: Prime Minister Omar Karami commented two days ago that the Lebanese army is not up to the task of defending the Lebanese territory without a Syrian military and security presence. The problem is that he failed to realize that Lebanese law allows for very liberal interpretations of the concepts of libel and slander, especially regarding issues having to do with government institutions. Other issues that are particularly sensitive in this regard here are religion, political affiliation, family or tribal affiliation, and even economic well-being. And no sooner had Karami made his comment did opposition leader Walid Jumblatt dive in head-first, accusing Karami of seeking to demoralize the army and undermine the very government he leads, even demanding that Karami be brought to trial. This accusation looks like it may be a verbal jab at the Syrian government, which announced recently that they seek to arrest Jumblatt should he come back into Syria (Jumblatt also owns property in Syria - not exactly rare; also, got this from LBC television - if someone finds a link about it, please send it to me). Perhaps Jumblatt was only reminding the government that there are enough laws in existence in Lebanon to bring just about everyone involved in it under some kind of suspicion, so don't go starting problems you cannot finish.

Monday's Events: As I have mentioned before and as the Lebanese government continues to demonstrate, opposition protests to be held tomorrow will not be able to avoid an extremely invasive and redundant security presence in the downtown area. The mere presence of massive numbers of soldiers and urban-camo-clad internal security agents (as well as the ever-present plainclothesmen here) carries with it a higher risk of provocation, especially if the protests feature large numbers of students. And considering that the roads leading to the downtown area will be cordoned off, thereby closing off car access particularly from the northern Christian areas, the protests may indeed consist mostly of students from the American University of Beirut (AUB) and Lebanese American University (LAU), both of which exist within walking distance of the protest site. I expect the LAU presence to be particularly pronounced, especially considering that Hariri's main residence sits adjacent to the campus and his foundations fund many departments, programs, and scholarships there. (Such is the case at AUB as well, but I just don't hear about it as much there)

To make matters worse, loyalist government supporters have announced their plans to stage a counter-demonstration at the same time and location as the anti-government protests. Far from the spontaneous and peaceful nature of the opposition protests that have existed continuously so far, the suggestion that such a counter-demonstration is necessary seems to telegraph weakness on the part of the government; peaceful demonstrations take the air out of any case the government can make regarding the character of the opposition, after all. Add to this the already provocative police and army presence in the area, and what we will have in the downtown area is a recipe for increased tension and even violence. The mere presence of so-called loyalists and opposition members in the same scrum may well lead to violence, and then the police and army will have the pretext they need to forcefully clear the area and end the sit-ins at the Hariri gravesite. The way it looks from here is that the government is escalating the situation all by itself and creating a problem that it could easily avoid - yet another episode of graphic mismanagement of its own resources and abuse of its own people.

Update: Jemma Islamiyya - a Sunni islamist organization in Tripoli, Lebanon, just announced that they will not participate in government activities, Future TV reports. They did not go as far as saying they would join the opposition, but this appears to be a serious blow to the government as well as to Syria in the meantime. More on this later if the situation continues to develop.