Looking Ahead

While American news readers jump for joy about the triumph of "people power" in Lebanon, Walid Jumblatt makes it clear that the real battles lie ahead. The real prize, Jumblatt says, is to have the staunchly pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud removed from office before a new government can be formed. Lahoud's term as president was extended as a result of a controversial constitutional amendment allowing for the extension, and many here feel that this amendment was forced upon the Lebanese government by Syrian pressure (okay, those familiar with Lebanese politics will accuse me of the understatement of the year; just bear with me here).

Tony at Across the Bay has already given this issue more than enough amplification, and he puts it all into the larger perspective of elections and approaches toward significant players in the region.

One sensitive point I see developing in the near term has to do with former interior minister Sleiman Franjieh. Franjieh's short tenure as interior minister was just long enough for him to purge the ministry of most non-friends or at least most non-people-who-owe-him-favors. Until a government arrives with a new interior minister who can counter-purge Franjieh's numerous lackeys from the ministry, there remains a distinct possibility of trouble within the security apparatus, especially if Syria decides to start looking for individual groups for short-term destabilization projects (i.e. violence). And considering Franjieh's psychotic behavior yesterday (Arabic - transcript of remarks on p. 3) right in front of LBC's cameras (as well as the part of that performance in which he suggested that Jumblatt go to the Hague to face war crimes charges), anything is possible.

The problem with Franjieh is the following:
(1) He wanted eventually to become president of the Republic of Lebanon, just like his grandfather did.
(2) He was relieved of duty just before parliamentary elections were to be held.
(3) The interior ministry is in charge of running elections in Lebanon.
(5) The interior ministry generally has manipulated the election playing field so as to please Syria.
(6) Franjieh wanted to become President of the Republic of Lebanon.

Yes, I know that I repeated number (1) twice. I just want to emphasize the point that now that Franjieh is no longer interior minister and the specter of elections not tainted by his cronies lies ahead, possibly even including the presence of foreign election observers (as the U.S., Europe, and the UN seem to want), Franjieh's prospects of one day becoming president appear to be diminishing by the minute. Hence, he may well feel he has nothing left to lose, and Syria just might be poised to take advantage of Franjieh's new-found sense of despair. There is a lot that Franjieh and his followers can do to make things very uncomfortable in some parts of Lebanon. My guess is that this guy will have to fit somewhere in a new government after the tempers calm down and people start measuring their statements a little better. The only other option -excluding him entirely, whatever form that takes - does not bode well for ground-level stability here. Let's hope for the best.