More Twists and Turns

Al-Nahar reports that UN-sponsored investigators now have access to satellite footage of the blast on February 14 that killed Rafik Hariri. If indeed this is true, investigators will undoubtedly be able to read the blast signature to tell how the bomb was detonated - from above or below ground. The Lebanese government has maintained from the beginning - rather weakly, I might add - that the blast was caused by a car bomb. However, numerous amateurs and professionals have noticed that characteristics of the blast crater as well as the debris field around the site of the explosion pointed perhaps more convincingly toward a below-ground explosion (see my previous comments and thread on the issue). A below-ground bomb would have required a larger personnel pool to facilitate, not to mention a very high level of organization and more funds.

The thing that I find really odd is how quickly the Lebanese interior ministry lost control of the situation from the beginning. An investigation allegedly started, but then never materialized. The prime minister requested Swiss investigators as a means to avoid United Nations involvement in an investigation, seeing that the United States already had Kofi Annon on board regarding demands to get Syria out of Lebanon. The prime minister was rebuffed by Switzerland. Meanwhile, the interior ministry paid so little attention to the situation on the ground that they failed to do a full rescue operation following the blast in the first place. Bodies went missing, and the interior ministry refused to facilitate a search. Amid charges of a cover-up of involvement in Hariri's murder, the government did amazingly little to protect itself. So, as as Tony points out at Across the Bay, it is easy to see why the opposition here seeks the resignation of all six security chiefs (both military and civilian) - either the culpability or the competence of the security services needs to be established.

Meanwhile, U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon Jeffrey Feltman attended the public funeral today of Mohammed Ghalayni, one of the missing persons mentioned above whose body was recently recovered. Consider this to be a statement of U.S. support for opposition demands regarding the security chiefs - ambassadors here tend to measure their every action against the politically charged local environment, and this is how many Lebanese would have interpreted his actions anyway.

On a separate but related note, the rumors of the day come from Stratfor's Geopolitical Diary. First off, local magic eight-balls predict that Saudi Arabia will buy Syria's way out of Lebanon:

Assad, bereft of friends, is in Riyadh to see if he can salvage some cash from the debacle. He is at least guaranteed a hearing: The House of Saud also is feeling plenty isolated these days, what with the United States forcing Riyadh into a showdown with its local militants and the Iraqi insurgency raising the frightening possibility of deep Iranian influence across the border in southern -- Shiite-dominated -- Iraq. It might just be in Riyadh's calculus to purchase a future favor from Syria, and Syria has come asking.

But if some of the more colorful rumors are true, then al Assad should not expect to get too much cash. According to the Middle East rumor mill, the late Rafik al-Hariri was the illegitimate son of none other than Saudi King Fahd. It was Saudi mediation that helped put al-Hariri in charge after the Lebanese civil war ended, and Saudi money was critical in the reconstruction effort.

This second rumor has been around a long time, and it was most likely started by some of Hariri's enemies, but there is no doubt that Hariri was a "favorite son" (no pun intended) of the house of Saud. Regardless, the situation is thus: Hariri is dead. The Lebanese are extremely restless now, and they are demonstrating lots of ideas about freedom of assembly and political self-determination that many leaders in the Middle East find less than comfortable, not to mention that the Saudi royal family really liked Hariri the way he was - still alive. Hence, Assad is now in Saudi Arabia, where all the money is, very much vulnerable to bribes and whatever else may be on the agenda. The next few days should be very interesting indeed.